Retreat from stock market, impending European implosion worrying

An overall retreat from the US stock market, coupled with worries of a global recession and bear market has Bonner predicting investors won?t be getting off the hook very easily. The odds are high enough for him to advise wise investors to start looking for cover.

By Bill Bonner,?Guest blogger / June 1, 2012

A demonstrator encourages drivers to blow their horns in front the Caixa Bank during a protest in Barcelona, Spain, March 31, 2012. The European Union urged Spain Thursday to come clean on how it plans to finance the overhaul of its banking sector. European instability, possibly leading to a global recession, has Bonner advising investors to look for cover.

Emilio Morenatti/AP

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Yesterday, we promised to tell you more about our L-shaped non-recovery. It?s already lasted 5 years since subprime cracked up? It could last another 5?10?20?or even 100 years.

Skip to next paragraph Bill Bonner

Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com).

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Okay, 100 is probably an exaggeration, but who knows?

?An About-Face for Investors,? says The Wall Street Journal.

As predicted in this space, the ?Facebook debacle turns high hopes into potentially mood-souring skepticism.?

?Retreat from the stock market continues,? reports The New York Times:

?I?m just extremely skeptical about the ability of a retail purchaser to be able to play on a level field in the market,? said [Alex] Tsesis, who is 45 and lives in Chicago. ?I?m just trying to get out of stocks.?

Investors had a chance to think over the long weekend. When the markets opened on Tuesday morning, they were ready to act. The Dow rose 125 points. Gold dropped $20. They dumped Facebook.

But it hardly matters. Up one day. Down the next. Who cares? The big trend is what matters. And the big trend now, we believe, is down. Down for stocks. Down for the economy.

When this happens, it can last a very long time. For evidence, we give you exhibit #1 ? Japan!

Yesterday, The Financial Times reported that a thousand yen invested in stocks in 1985, ?even including dividends and inflation? has made exactly nothing.?

Colleague Justice Litle elaborates:

?Stocks for the long run? is a mantra of conventional investors everywhere. It is also the name of a book by Wharton finance professor (and babbling permabull) Jeremy Siegel.

Whenever the market outlook grows cloudy, or even downright bleak, we are urged to remember: It?s the long run that counts.

And yet, how?s this for ?long run:? A yen-denominated investment in Japanese stocks, made in 1985, has been dead money for 27 years.

Japan?s dead presidents have gone nowhere?and made nothing for investors. They have been dead?dead?dead?for an entire generation.

?If it can happen to Japanese stocks,? asks Justice, ?could it happen to American ones??

Certainly ? there is no real reason why not.

America has already ?turned Japanese? in respect to perpetual ZIRP (zero interest rate monetary policy). Structural unemployment issues, and the utter failure of stimulus programs ? so much for ?shovel ready!? ? resemble the Japanese experience. Like their Japanese counterparts, American policy makers have no new ideas? only tired old bad ones.

Back in the USA, investors are leaving the stock market. Mutual fund outflows continue at a rate of about $3 billion a month. The Dow is almost back to where it began the year. Trading volume is subdued.

As of last Friday, Facebook shares were down about 16% from the IPO price. Yesterday, they kept going down, closing below $29. The WSJ continues:

?Facebook?s banged-up share price and the technical snarls that bollixed up the stock?s first day of trading on the Nasdaq?have left some small investors even more glum??

They?re probably not nearly as glum now as they will be later. The Dow is still above 12,000; stocks may not be at their peak, but they are far from their bottom. You?ll know it when you get to a real bottom. Investors are so glum you have to hide their guns. That?s when you get P/E ratios of 5 and dividend yields of 5%. That?s when you get bargains. Someday, unless this really is a new era, they will be real bargains. This day they are not.

The WSJ is wrong?or perhaps premature. Investors have not done an about face. Not yet. They?ve wheeled around a few degrees from their comfortable bullish trajectory of a few months ago. But they will have to keep turning in order to change course by a full 180 degrees. Then, watch out below!

What could make investors spin further against stocks? Two things:

First, Europe could blow up much worse than people expect. The eurozone has been on the brink of disaster for so long, most people think it will stay on the brink forever?as if there were an invisible barrier that keeps them from going over the edge.

We are connoisseurs of disaster here at The Daily Reckoning. Not that we like them; we just appreciate them. They clear away a lot of dead wood. And, yes, dead presidents. People invest badly. They spend unwisely. All is well ?til the disaster hits. Then, the dead presidents disappear.

One thing we?ve noticed is that disasters seem to take longer than you expect to start?and then they move faster than you anticipated. Remember the dot.com blow-up? You could see it coming for years. Then, when it happened?it blew up fast. Poof?hundreds of billions in dead presidents?gone!

So too the collapse of the housing industry ? particularly those ?low-docs, cash back, subprime mortgages? ? was visible long before it happened. We waited. We waited. And we waited some more. And then, when the catastrophe began, things happened so fast we couldn?t keep up with them.

The breakdown in Europe could happen fast too.

?I don?t know about you,? said a hedge fund manager we talked to last weekend, ?but if I were in Greece, I?d be looking for a way to get my money out of the country. There?s a very good chance the Greeks will convert euro deposits to drachma. They will probably close the banks. The Greeks will probably riot and burn banks?if not bankers.

?So, what would you do if you were in Spain?or Italy? Wouldn?t you be trying to read the handwriting on the wall too? And wouldn?t you want to get your money out too?

?Of course you would. That?s why the Swiss are talking about imposing negative interest rates, to try to discourage other Europeans from exchanging their euros from Swiss francs.

?You don?t have to look very far ahead to see what would happen. Just wait ?til people start lining up in front of the banks to get their money out. If you were in Athens and you saw people lining up to get their money out of the banks?wouldn?t you get in line too? Most people would. And the banks don?t have enough money to honor all those depositors? claims. So the banks have to go broke?and the whole thing falls down hard.?

According to the news media, everyone is making plans for when Greece says auf wiedersehen to the euro. But even an ?orderly? exit of Greece from the euro is estimated to cost $1 trillion. And there isn?t enough money in all the banks in Euroland to pay for a disorderly exit.

Which is one reason we?re keeping our ?Crash Alert? flag flying.

The other major reason for guarding against a crash is this: all the world?s major economies are approaching recession.

Old friend Marc Faber says he expects a global recession either in the last quarter of this year or early in 2013. Asked about the odds, Faber put them at ?100%.?

One hundred percent does not sound like odds to us. It sounds like certainty. We doubt anything in economics is that sure. But let?s say the odds of a ?synchronized worldwide recession? are only 50%. That still puts a lot of empty space between today?s stock prices and a recession-inspired bottom. We wouldn?t want to be standing in that space, lest the market crash down upon our heads.

You know, dear reader, that it is futile to make predications, especially about the future, as Yogi Berra would say. But heck, we?ll take a guess. The euro zone won?t fall apart?at least, not completely. The Germans will give way. It won?t be pretty. No ?elegant solution? will be found. Instead, an awkward, ugly?even grotesque?combination of concessions, compromise, and craven corruption will keep the European project together. In fact, it will be more together than ever. Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel will find a way to preserve the union. Most likely, the Europeans will learn from the US. They will write a huge check to member states to cover?or partially cover?the debts of the past. The union will be responsible for the debts of, say, Greece or Ireland. It will be a scheme vaguely reminiscent of the Brady Bonds, or Alexander Hamilton?s takeover of state debt after the American Revolution, with new debt backed by the EU?of extremely long duration (long enough to allow inflation to cut down the real value of the bonds.) The debts of the future, on the other hand, will be the responsibility of member states (lenders beware!). Everyone can save face. Lenders (banks) will get their money (more or less). Borrowers can avoid disorderly defaults and bankruptcy (more or less). And Germany and France can hold onto their beloved European Union (more or less) ?and still not be on the hook for Greek behavior going forward.

But as to the second danger ? that of a global recession and bear market ? investors won?t be so lucky. The odds may not be 100%, but they are high enough so that a wise investor will take cover.

Beware the disappearance of dead presidents in a crash. Then, beware again: the dead presidents could stay dead for a long, long time.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
?for The Daily Reckoning

The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here. To add or view a comment on a guest blog, please go to the blogger's own site by clicking on dailyreckoning.com.

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Hogwarts: Your Destiny

Hogwarts school of magic has opened after years of repair and the previous generation died but a new generation has come to replace the old one.

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Livermorium, flerovium join periodic table

Nearly a year after they joined the periodic table, two man-made elements have been officially named.

What used to be element 114 is now flerovium, honoring the Flerov Laboratory of Nuclear Reactions in Dubna, Russia, where it was created. Element 116 is now livermorium, for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, Calif., home of a scientific team that participated in its creation in Dubna. The chemical symbols are Fl and Lv.

You won't find these materials lying around. Once made, these atoms decay within seconds.

Both names had been proposed last year by the scientists who made the materials by smashing atoms together. Final approval was announced Wednesday by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry.

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Create a Brand Name Online With Social Media | Social Network ...

Social media is one of the most powerful marketing tools and can be highly beneficial for any business. Social media management directly addresses your customers, get their comments and offer them solutions to their problems. In order to acquire the most from social network, an organization is also required to dedicate time and manpower to the campaign. Social media has yielded beneficial results for both small and large scale businesses. Social media is a wide platform and is now readily accepted by all the business owners. Social media for small businesses can generate more leads and reach to their target audience, so that their brand can enjoy online exposure and can have a better web traffic. It is quite known that social platform is big and navigation through various networks can be tough and thus requires proper planning and effort. Businesses should have the knowledge of right kind of strategies that can work wonders for them and their businesses. Social Media for Marketing is cost-effective as many of the sites are free to sign up. Social media marketing also helps your business with additional marketing channel and increases the awareness about your product, brand or organization.

In order to perform these tasks, you can also considering hiring a Virtual Administrative Assistant who bring in the same level of work skills and information as a real time office assistant would. Virtual assistants will focus on your work and you can continue concentrating on other important business activities. Social media for small businesses always require strategies and through proper implementation of these strategies, once can derive multiple benefits. Social media platforms like blogs, social networking sites, discussion forums and review websites provide potential channels wherein the SMM campaign can be rightly worked upon. Moreover, social network fosters communication and create unique online brand identity. These days many firms have experts whose main focus is on to help businesses by creating right strategies.

Social media for marketing is very important in this modern age as if you will not use this form of marketing, your competitors certainly will and you will not able to fill in the gap easily. Outsourcing Data Entry provided by virtual assistants can be highly beneficial. These jobs are also very high paying and require good speed internet, and one is required to be online full time. Virtual assistants are one of the best considered off shore employees for this job. Virtual administrative assistants are trained professionals and are most likely capable enough to handle all that work you are not likely to cover.

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Andy Samberg Says His 'SNL' Departure Is 'Open-Ended'

'Something will get decided over the summer,' Samberg tells MTV News during Movie Awards Sneak Peek Week.
By Jocelyn Vena, with reporting by Jim Cantiello and Josh Horowitz


Andy Samberg
Photo: MTV News

Now that Kristen Wiig has officially left "Saturday Night Live," many fans are wondering what the deal is with Andy Samberg and Jason Sudeikis, who are both rumored to be leaving the show ahead of its fall season premiere.

It seems that fans will have to wait a bit longer to find out. When MTV News caught up with Samberg during MTV Sneak Peek Week, where he sat down to chat about his new film, "That's My Boy," he explained that he's got some time before he needs to give boss Lorne Michaels his two weeks' notice.

"You know, I've just been focusing on the movie and all this stuff," he explained to MTV News. "I haven't talked to Lorne about it yet. Something will get decided over the summer. We'll see. No matter what it's been a dream come true working there for me."

"I don't know yet. But it was a fun season," he later added during his Sneak Peek chat. "It was a crazy finale. Mick Jagger and Arcade Fire and Foo Fighters. It's open-ended at this time."

Samberg, who hosted the MTV Movie Awards in 2009, sat down with MTV News ahead of this year's show. The 2012 show will be hosted by Russell Brand and feature performances by Fun., the Black Keys, Martin Solveig and Wiz Khalifa. It all goes down from the Gibson Amphitheatre in Universal City, California, live on Sunday at 9 p.m. ET.

Head over to MovieAwards.MTV.com to vote for your favorite flicks now! The 21st annual MTV Movie Awards air live this Sunday, June 3, at 9 p.m.

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Samsung discusses Galaxy S III design using the language of Magnetic Poetry

Samsung discusses Galaxy S III design using the language of Magnetic Poetry

Samsung has a tendency to, well, get a bit pretentious when it comes to talking about its products. At the launch event, Sammy described the Galaxy S III as being "nature inspired" and "designed for humans." But, we know you've been hungering for more head-scratching, Madlibs-esque, non sequiturs to describe the form and function of the company's latest flagship. Thankfully, you'll plenty of comparisons to "infinity pools" and mentions of its "minimal organic" aesthetic at the source link. Would you describe the HyperGlaze finish on the handsets as "intriguing?" We suppose that all depends on what your second adjective was. Honestly though, we're ok with Samsung getting a little flowery, so long as it promises to stop stalking us. Click on the source link for more.

Samsung discusses Galaxy S III design using the language of Magnetic Poetry originally appeared on Engadget on Fri, 01 Jun 2012 09:31:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Here?s Johnny! SkySQL Raises Another $2.5M To Give Oracle Nightmares

200px-The_shining_heres_johnnySkySQL plans to be something of a thorn in Oracle's side. As you'll recall MySQL, which as a free database platform annoyed Oracle, was sold to Sun and then Oracle bought Sun. That was supposed to keep a lid on things. Now with MySQL under its wing, Oracle plans to move those MySQL users over to Oracle databases in due course. But it can't push things too hard due to EU competition rules in place for the next five years. So guess what? That gives SkySQL - backed previously by the former founders of MySQL - a window to come back and start re-supporting all those dedicated die-hard Sun/MySQL fans. They're baaack?.. And to do it they've raised an additional ?2 million in Series A funding from California Technology Ventures, LLC (CTV). This takes SkySQL's war chest to ?6 million and will mean they can expand their business supporting existing MySQL users.

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Supervolcanoes may have shorter fuse

A doomsday volcanic eruption with the power to wipe out civilization may sound like the premise for a bad movie, but so-called supervolcanoes are far from fictional. And now scientists are warning that supervolcanoes require far less time to build up the ammunition for a cataclysmic eruption than once thought.

However, this newly discovered "short fuse" must be put in context: The buildup of a supervolcano toward eruption still may take several hundred or thousands of years.

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      Science editor Alan Boyle's blog: Researchers show how DNA can be tweaked to create shapes as complex as alphabets and smiley faces more cheaply and quickly than previously thought.

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    3. Supervolcanoes may have shorter fuse
    4. Origin of disputed tyrannosaur investigated

There are quite a few supervolcanoes around the world, from the one in Yellowstone Park to what could be a new supervolcano in Bolivia. While none of them appears primed for an eruption, understanding their behavior illuminates Earth's past and gives a better picture of the danger they pose.

Supervolcano short fuse
Previous studies indicated that supervolcanoes ? volcanoes that spew out roughly 1,000 times more material than Mount St. Helens did in 1980 ? need 100,000 to 200,000 years to build up a reservoir of magma before they can unleash a violent eruption.

Yet research published May 30 in the journal PLoS ONE suggests that these giant magma pools, typically 10 to 25 miles across, exist for only a few thousand to even just a few hundred years before a supervolcano goes off.

"Our study suggests that when these exceptionally large magma pools form, they are ephemeral and cannot exist very long without erupting," Guilherme Gualda, an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at Vanderbilt University, said in a statement.

Gualda and colleagues studied Bishop Tuff, a plateau in California that is essentially the remains of a supervolcano that erupted about 760,000 years ago. They used a dating technique that looked at the rate of quartz crystallization ? as opposed to a more traditional method that uses the decay of elements such as uranium and thorium in zircon crystals ? to determine the lifespan of the magma pool that sparked the massive eruption.

The study yielded compelling evidence that the magma pool may have formed in 10,000 years ? and most likely formed in as little as 500 to 3,000 years.

More scrutiny needed
Gualda said that means the world's supervolcanoes may bear closer scrutiny than they now receive. "The fact that the process of magma body formation occurs in historical time, instead of geological time, completely changes the nature of the problem," he said. [ 10 Wild Volcano Facts ]

The most recent super-eruption occurred at Taupo in New Zealand, about 26,000 years ago; the most dramatic to occur while humans walked the Earth happened 74,000 years ago, in Indonesia, when an eruption at Mount Toba rained ash all over South Asia and filled the atmosphere with so great a load of ash and small particles that it altered global weather for as long as a decade.

There are indications that the eruption took a devastating toll on the world's human population.

Follow OurAmazingPlanet for the latest in Earth science and exploration news on Twitter@OAPlanet and on Facebook.

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Tim Cook: Apple doubling-down on Siri, 'stay tuned' on Facebook developments

Image

Well, it looks like secrecy isn't the only thing that Apple is doubling-down on these days. Speaking at D10, Tim Cook said that that Apple is "doubling down on Siri," adding that "you'll be really pleased with what you see in the coming months on this." He did also acknowledge that Siri had its shortcomings, but said that "customers love it," and that "what makes Siri cool is that she has a personality." When it came to a largely non-existent iOS feature at the moment -- Facebook integration -- Cook said to "stay tuned," noting that he has "great respect for them," and that he wants Facebook's hundreds of millions of customers to have "the best experience" on the iPhone and iPad.

Tim Cook: Apple doubling-down on Siri, 'stay tuned' on Facebook developments originally appeared on Engadget on Tue, 29 May 2012 23:02:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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How to Buy Domain Names

As long as today it can be close to impossible to communicate your ideas if you do not have a website on the Internet, there can be more than one reason for you to buy domain.

Whether you are a business owner or a web designer, a website can be a great way for you to share your thoughts and ideas with the entire world. A website can be very simple or on the contrary very complex, but in any way it needs a name and this name must be registered. Hence, the first step for you is to choose a good name for your website.

Your domain name must reflect the main idea of the website. As an example, if you want to sell products or services on the Internet, you can give your website the name of your company. The name must be catchy and simple. It must be easy-to-understand so that even the foreign audience could remember it. Finally, it must not be used by someone else, or else you may face serious copyright problems.

Given that as soon as you buy domain it becomes your property, you are the one who is responsible for its name. Hence, it will be a bad idea to use a name of a well-known brand for your site.

With the right domain name, it will be really easy for you to set up an effective website on the Internet. But if you want to make it even more effective, you need to choose the right domain name extension. Basically, there are two types of domain name extensions. Your website can have either a regional or a generic domain name extension. It depends on your target audience which of the two options you will choose and whether you will buy domain with a generic or a regional name. The only thing to keep in mind here is that generic domain names are somewhat more expensive than regional domain names. The thing is that it is easier to find a generic domain name in a search engine wherever you live. On the other hand, if your target audience lives in some particular country, it can be much more reasonable to buy an affordable regional domain.

If you want to buy domain but do not want to create a site right away, you can always park it. In fact, it is a very popular way of making money today. People buy domain names in bulk and offer these domains for rent. The profits really depend on the domain name, and this is another reason for you to choose a good name for your website. Even if you will not use it today, you can always rent it and make some money out of it. But whatever you are planning to do with your website, make sure you buy the domain from a trustworthy company. The best way to find a trustworthy domain registrar is to check if a company has ICANN badge on its website or not.

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